Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
